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Glitazones and the Oral Diabetes Market

Launch of Avandia and Actos
June 1999: SmithKline Beecham launched Avandia (rosiglitazone), its new oral treatment for non-insulin dependent "Type II" diabetes. It is being co-promoted by Bristol-Myers Squibb, and is indicated as both monotherapy and in combination with Bristol-Myers Squibb Glucophage (metformin), licensed from Merck KGaA. Recommended for approval in the United States at the end of April, Avandia is currently pending approval with the EMEA in Europe and 13 other markets. The FDA also recommended the approval of a similar drug from Takeda, Actos (pioglitazone), which will be co-marketed in the US by Eli Lilly.

Both Avandia and Actos are members of a new class of drugs known as thiazolidinediones, commonly referred to as the "glitazones". These oral drugs target insulin resistance, the inability of the body to respond adequately to insulin. This leads to poor control of blood-sugar levels, even if natural insulin production is normal.

Potential Impact on Rezulin in the US
These two new drugs, both marketed by large companies experienced in the diabetes market, are likely to impact sales of the first glitazone launched, Warner-Lambert’s Rezulin (troglitazone). Licensed from Sankyo, Rezulin has been subject to a review by the FDA following reports of serious side effects, and doctors have been advised to limit their prescriptions. Similarly, even though Avandia is given in lower doses and is metabolised much faster, the FDA has ordered monitoring of patients as therapy begins.

Troglitazone in Europe and Japan
Sankyo’s European licensee for troglitazone, Glaxo Wellcome, was unsuccessful in its attempts to re-launch its product Romozin in the UK in March 1999. The company withdrew the drug shortly after launch in December 1997, due to concerns over liver toxicity. This was despite submitting additional safety and efficacy data to the UK’s Medicines Control Agency in August 1998. It is now unlikely that GW will resubmit troglitazone in the UK, as the company has its own non-glitazone Type II diabetes drug in phase II trials. Sankyo is continuing to sell the product in Japan, as Noscal.

Avandia vs Actos?
Many analysts believe that Actos has the most promising competitive profile of the three drugs. Avandia is perceived as being superior to Rezulin, but disadvantaged by its lipid profile (it causes an increase in LDL-cholesterol levels, not seen with Actos). SmithKline Beecham, however, maintain that HDL, or ‘good’ cholesterol levels rise as well, meaning that the overall effect on the lipid profile is neutral. Also, Actos is now approved for use with sulfonylurea and insulin, whereas this data for Avandia is still a few months away.

It is estimated that the market will be worth over $5 billion by 2003, with Actos capturing $3 billion. By mid-2000, Actos is expected to have up to 20% of the US oral diabetes drug market, and Avandia 15%, whilst Rezulin’s share will fall to below 5%. Another benefit of Actos is its once-a-day dosing, whereas Avandia is more efficacious if administered twice-daily. However, SmithKline Beecham and Bristol-Myers Squibb benefit from larger sales force sizes. Avandia’s competitiveness has been assured by its pricing, which will be 8-15% lower than Rezulin. The label recommends regular liver testing, but it does not contain the black-box warning of Rezulin. After the ADA meeting, where efficacy data for Actos was presented, it appears that Avandia and Actos appear to be similar in terms of efficacy, weight gain and oedema.

Future Market Potential of $20 billion by 2006
Type II diabetes is a therapeutic area with huge potential. It is characterized by a large patient population, a small number of drugs, many generics, and a widespread level of dissatisfaction with their efficacy. The number of diabetes sufferers is growing strongly in developing nations, particularly Asia, but also in the US, due to the downwards reclassification of fasting blood glucose levels. Thus, the market is benefiting from both underlying volume growth and mix. Industry analysts describe Type II diabetes as "an epidemic for the next millennium." It is predicted that the global market will be worth $20 billion in 2006, with the majority of growth being in oral drugs.

Epidemiology/Cost of Treatment
Approximately 2.3% of the world’s population suffer from some form of diabetes, with the number growing by 4-5% per annum. Significantly, the launch of the glitazones will raise public awareness, and narrow the "huge" gap between prevalence and treatment rates. Around 50% of the Type II population are currently believed to go undiagnosed. Even so, diabetes costs the UK’s National Health Service 5.5 - 9.4% of its total annual budget, and, in the US, the disease cost $98 billion in 1997.

Further scientific information on the glitazones and other oral diabetes therapies can be found on R&Dfocus. For more information about SmithKline Beecham, Eli Lilly, Takeda etc., see the relevant IMS HEALTH Pharmaceutical Company Profiles.