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At the beginning of 2000
the European Union began formal membership talks with the
Governments of Bulgaria and the Slovak Republic. They will
join the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovenia,
which joined talks on entry terms in March 1998.
All Central and Eastern European Governments are being forced
to implement tough fiscal policies. The six markets covered
in IMS HEALTH's new study - Pharma
Prognosis Central and Eastern Europe 1999-2004 - Bulgaria,
Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovak Republic and Slovenia,
will see positive GDP growth over the outlook period. The
inflation rate is expected to decrease over the period 1999-2004
for most of the markets.
According to the study, all of the six markets are expected
to show positive growth for the period 1999-2004. The combined
six markets reviewed are forecast to show a compound annual
growth rate of 13.5% over the forecast period when expressed
in US$.
However, most of the markets will experience a decrease
in growth rates in comparison with the past. This is due
to the increasing burden of paying for healthcare delivery
in countries that are trying to reduce public spending,
either because they are entering the EU or simply to reduce
debt levels. The most significant growth will be seen in
Bulgaria, whose economy is recovering from the severe recession
that started in 1994.
Poland has by far the largest pharmaceutical market of the
six countries, and will easily retain this position in the
period up to the year 2004, reaching a market size of more
than US$4.5 billion and lifting its share from 50.0% in
1999 to 53.0% in 2004.
Controlling healthcare expenditure remains a high priority
for the healthcare payers across Central and Eastern Europe,
particularly for those countries joining the EU. The budget
for pharmaceutical products remains a high profile target
for cost containment measures.
Cost-containment measures considered or implemented include
promotion of the use of generic products and changes to
the reimbursement lists, which include delisting a number
of products and altering the rate at which certain groups
of drugs are reimbursed.
Cost containment is also being targeted at hospitals by
limiting their budget and by introducing therapeutic guidelines
and protocols. These cost containment measures are only
examples from across the six markets.
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