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The outlook for the Latin American region looks significantly
brighter than it did a year ago. According to a new report
by IMS HEALTH - Pharma
Prognosis Latin America - the seven major Latin American
retail pharmaceutical markets are forecast to experience
average annual growth of 7.3% in the period 1999-2004. This
growth figure represents a substantial increase on the 4.8%
growth in the period 1994-1999, reflecting an element of
bounceback from the recent
economic crisis in many of the markets, but most significantly
in the largest market, Brazil. Brazil's market is expected
to resume growth in 2000, representing a remarkable turnaround
following
two successive years of decline in 1998 and 1999 , in
which the market lost nearly one third of its value.
Growth
in the Latin American retail pharmaceutical market, 1994-2004
However,
despite the return of growth to the Brazilian market, Mexico's
market is expected to overtake Brazil as the largest in
Latin America in 2004, lifting its share from 26.6% in 1999
to 31.7% in 2004. This rapid growth in the Mexican market
will be driven by its growing economic strength as a member
of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and
by recent moves by the Mexican government to expand healthcare
coverage to a greater proportion of the population. It is
expected that growth in the Mexican market will slow towards
the end of the prognosis period, as cost containment measures,
including greater prescribing of 'true' generics, as opposed
to copy products, begin to take effect.
Forecast
breakdown of the Latin American retail pharmaceutical market
by country, 2004
There
are several reasons for optimism regarding future growth
in the Latin American region. These include:
-
The region is becoming more attractive to multinationals,
as product patent protection is implemented and, more
importantly, enforced, in Latin American countries. Mexico,
in particular, as a member of NAFTA, is attracting substantial
inward investment. This is likely to grow even more rapidly
in future, given the recent signing of a trade deal with
the EU
- The
recent recovery of oil prices will be beneficial for a
number of countries in the region, particularly Venezuela,
Mexico and Colombia
- The
impact of the devaluation of the Brazilian Real on the
region was less serious than was previously assumed. The
Mexican and Venezuelan pharmaceutical markets appear to
have escaped relatively unharmed..
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01 Feb 2000, Copyright IMS HEALTH |
