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According
to IMS HEALTH’s World
Review 2001, there
are five beta interferon products on the world market. Two
of these, Daiichi’s Feron and Mochida’s IFN beta,
are natural interferons available only in Japan, where they
are indicated for hepatitis C. Another two, Biogen’s
Avonex and Schering AG’s Betaferon, are recombinant
interferons available worldwide for the treatment of multiple
sclerosis (MS).
Avonex the global leader but
Rebif catching up fast
According to World Review 2001,
Avonex was by far the highest-selling beta interferon on
the global MS market in 2000, with Rebif a distant third.
However, the latest financial results reported by Biogen,
Serono and Schering AG in 2001 indicate that Rebif has gained
a lot of ground. Avonex sales in 2001 were $972 million,
up by 27.7% from $761 million in 2000, while Schering’s
Betaferon sales increased by 15% to Euro681 million, with
Euro285 million of this being generated in the USA.
Breakdown of
Global Multiple Sclerosis Interferon Market*, 2000
*Excludes sales of beta interferon
products not indicated for multiple sclerosis
Source: IMS HEALTH World Review
However, Rebif is outpacing its
competitors, recording 49% sales growth in 2001 to reach
$379.6 million. IMS World Review 2002, to be published soon,
will show that Rebif is now the leading MS treatment outside
the USA.
Inertia could harm US prospects
At the beginning of 2001, Rebif’s
higher dose (priced at a 30-45% premium to the standard
formulation) was recognized as first-line therapy by the
European Commission, and Europe is now the world's fastest-growing
market for MS agents, as more doctors become convinced of
the benefits of high-dose therapy. Serono has stated that
approximately 55% of new Rebif prescriptions are for the
high-dose version.
So does this mean that Rebif
will storm the US market once approved? No doubt Serono
will promote the benefits of its product fiercely, but perhaps
physician and patient inertia will decide the outcome of
this battle. Biogen has the most to lose: Avonex accounted
for 93% of its revenue in 2001. However, Avonex is also
the incumbent, with a dominant position in the US market.
Betaseron, currently the only high-dose MS therapy in the
USA, has experienced difficulty in switching patients from
Avonex, and the problem of getting patients to switch treatment
once they are established could also apply to Rebif.
Furthermore, in an analysis of
the US multiple sclerosis market published in January 2002,
Morgan Stanley analysts cite the expected launch in 2005
of Elan/Biogen's new potential MS treatment, the monoclonal
antibody Antegren (natalizumab). A successful launch for
Antegren, the analysts say, would reduce the likelihood
of switches to Rebif, since the latter’s perceived
efficacy benefits over other interferons would become less
important with the existence of another treatment option.
With all these factors to consider,
no doubt the three companies will be keeping a close eye
on prescription trends for all three products in the first
few months after Rebif’s launch.
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