|
After another year of economic recession in Latin America
in 1999, the region's economies are starting to show signs
of recovery, and strengthening GDP will become apparent
during the period 2000-2004. Even Brazil, the country worst
affected by the recession, appears to be en route to recovery.
Mexico was not affected by the recession due to its strong
ties with the booming US economy, and this has helped make
the country's pharmaceutical market the best performing
in the region.
According to the recent update to IMS HEALTH's Pharma
Prognosis Latin America, 2000-2004, further strong growth
is expected in Mexico over the next four years, boosted
by the trade agreement with the European Union, ratified
in July 2000. Contrary to previous experiences, Mexico's
recent change of government does not appear to have acted
as a catalyst for economic crisis.
All the countries of Latin America, besides Colombia, are
forecast to post positive market growth in 2000. Pharmaceutical
sales for the seven countries combined are expected to grow
at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6%, at actual
prices.
Source: IMS HEALTH Pharma Prognosis Latin America, 2000-2004
Because of its large population, Brazil is currently the
largest pharmaceutical market in Latin America. In 2004
it is predicted to hold a 42.9% market share in volume and
31.2% market share in sales. This will mark a decline from
a market share in sales of 33.1% in 2000.
This decline, coupled with strong growth in the Mexican
market, means that the Brazilian market is forecast to be
outperformed, in sales, by the Mexican market in 2003 and
beyond. Mexico is forecast to post double-digit growth throughout
the forecast period and to account for 32.6% of total Latin
American sales in 2004. The other Latin American countries
will experience more moderate growth, however.
Source: IMS HEALTH Pharma Prognosis Latin
America, 2000-2004
Patent
law for pharmaceuticals will exist in all of the countries
covered by Pharma Prognosis Latin America by the end of
2000. Argentina will be the last country to introduce patent
law, in October 2000. In the countries where patent law
has been in existence for a number of years there is likely
to be a greater emphasis on generics in the future.
Bioequivalence data will be required for generic products.
In Mexico, bioequivalence testing is a prerequisite for
new generics entering the market. On the whole, doctors
are likely to be encouraged to prescribe more generics in
the future as a cost-containment measure.
Copy products generally occupy a small slice of the Latin
American market. However, in Argentina copy products are
still widely sold due to the lack of patent law, although
they will see their future jeopardised by the imminent patent
law enforcement.
Copy products in Argentina are expected to survive for a
few years after the patent law is established, particularly
those launched within a year of patent law enforcement,
but are expected to lose market share to true generics.
Suppliers of copy products will be obliged to pay royalties
to suppliers of branded originals, which will contribute
to the decline of this section of the market.
Patent law enforcement will tempt more multinationals to
enter the Argentine market, as has been the case in Mexico
for example. The local industry is expected to suffer at
the hands of enhanced multinational competition. Some local
suppliers will be obliged to enter the generics and/or OTC
markets as strategies for survival in the light of heightened
competition.
Consolidation in the retail pharmacy and distribution sectors
is expected to continue. Pharmacy chains have been causing
a threat to independent pharmacies in Latin America, particularly
in Chile and Peru. There has been some evidence of mergers
and acquisitions in the pharmacy chain sector and this is
likely to be a growing trend.
Similarly, the distribution sector is showing growing signs
of consolidation. In some countries it is concentrated among
a handful of suppliers. Foreign presence is also apparent
in both of these sectors. Further examples of consolidation
can be noted at manufacturer level. With the increase in
competition, some local companies have faced closure or
been acquired by multinationals due to the reduced demand
for copy products. This trend is set to continue.
The public hospital sector has been facing increasing pressure
due to limited resources. There have been government attempts
in some countries to encourage private hospital usage to
ease the burden on the public sector. This will further
stimulate growth in the private hospital sector and will
see providers of health insurance prospering during the
forecast period.
Register
on IMS HEALTH's online store open.IMSHEALTH.COM and
receive FREE monthly updates on the retail pharmacy markets
for Argentina, Brazil and Mexico.
Find a comprehensive and independent guide to the Latin
American markets with Pharma
Prognosis.
|
